A post on Charlie Sykes' blog written by Milwaukee County executive Scott Walker is part of what is an avalanche of speculation that John McCain is going to make Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty his choice for Vice President. This is supposed to help McCain get electoral votes in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. If this happens, I don't think it will move any of these states into (or further into in Iowa's case) the red side of things.
First off, there is this belief that Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa are all pretty much the same, and that Minnesota is the center of this region. First off, both of these things are patently untrue. While these three states are similar demographically, they all have different economies. Iowa tends to still be somewhat agrarian, Wisconsin is still industrial, and Minnesota is more service-oriented. The workers in these states have different worldviews, and different needs. Second, the idea that Minnesota is the center of this "region" is laughable. Wisconsin leans east in its ways, and is a lot more like Michigan than like Minnesota. Besides, there is a very large center of influence not far from Wisconsin, that being Chicago. If any place pulls weight in Wisconsin, it is Chicago, not Minneapolis. With Iowa, you have to remember that there is a lot of Minnesota between the Twin Cities and the border. Most Iowans do not get their news from Minnesota (Wisconsin doesn't either, for that matter). The population center of Minnesota is just too far and not big enough to exert that much influence over Iowa.
It is because of these factors that Pawlenty for VP will make little difference in Wisconsin and Iowa. As for Minnesota, I read Minnesota as reverting back somewhat to form as a liberal bastion in this election cycle. Long-term, Minnesota is still trending towards the center, but I still think Obama will get Minnesota's electoral votes. Having Pawlenty on the ticket will make things closer, but I still think Obama wins this state by a decent margin. This is not the year for the GOP to break the 8-election losing streak.
If Wisconsin and Iowa go red, I would bet that Pawlenty being on the ticket will have little to do with it.
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2 comments:
I think that if Wisconsin and Iowa go red, it will be because people have figured out what an empty suit Obama is.
Good post - the bien pensants in the MSM don't understand the Midwest, mostly because they don't think they have to.
I don't expect the national media to get the Midwest. It's flyover county, after all. However, the local media seems to love the idea that Minnesota is the center of some region that includes Wisconsin and Iowa. The point of my post is that most Iowans and Wisconsinites couldn't care less about Minnesota. They're not going to swoon over McCain if Pawlenty is the VP candidate.
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